Sep 27, 2012 3:00pm EDT
operation like they did in syria and iraq years ago would certainly spike the price of oil. you're going to go right to that 2008 $150 high. maybe even higher. but do we stay there? that's the question. we could come back down rapidly. to the extent there's destabilization, to the extent the iranian's mine the strait of hormuz, make other regional attacks, launch proxy battles, then it's off to the races in terms of a $200-plus barrel per oil because, like i said, the strait of hormuz gets shut down, i don't care if it's shut down for 15 minutes, once that headline hits the tape, it's over. >> david, obviously the markets try to handicap the possibility of a strike on a daily basis, an hourly basis. what are you hearing? can it be averted, or is it something that -- in whatever form it takes, whether it's the strike john referred to or something bigger, is it inevitable, do you think? >> you know, i think that the prime minister is confident that, you know, if the threat of credible military action becomes more significant, and frankly that will depend on the position president obama takes.
Sep 21, 2012 3:00pm EDT
states, canada and the north sea, specifically norway. and number three, iraq. iraq has continued to increase their production. you know, they have as much reserves as iran, so they are the third or second -- tied for second in the world of reserves, and iraq has put in these offshore terminals, and they have been able to ramp up the exports. that is likely to put some downward pressure if there's no geopolitical blow up, maria. >> i was just going to see, weigh the geopolitical risk versus the spr noise and tell me where oil goes between now and the end of the year. >> well, we have 117 for the end of the year on brefnlt now our view is that the geopolitical noise is not likely to seriously dissipate, because there's no sign of progress in the iranian nuclear negotiations. there's no sign that the standoff will be eased any time soon, and without any easy off ramp, we don't see how this situation is resolved, so we think potentially 2013 you're really looking at a question of does iran get nuclear weapons capability, or do you take military action to forestall that? we don't see
Sep 27, 2012 3:00pm EDT
as it pertains to how we get the country back in order. plus, very first u.s. ambassador to iraq, a lot of businesses who wanted to jump right in to help rebuild iraq because it can make them a lot of money. how has that come along. ashley: we look forward to it. the cme group, the nymex. let's begin, thank you for joining us at the nyse. look, the initial economic data was pretty miserable, but the market is not really responding. >> clearly nobody's paying attention to the u.s., it is all about china, the additional stimulus and all of that. traders really have found this market to be quite oversold taking the opportunity to ride on the back of good headlines because that is all that is driving us is headlines. make some money. i think they're taking a little bit of money off the table at the end of the day. ashley: are we due for a correction anytime soon? >> you're hearing a lot for people talking about corrections for what people would normally expect after a run-up like this if you are going to have a correction. some pundits say as much as 25% would not surprise them. a lot o
Sep 26, 2012 4:00pm EDT
post-war draw downs. that's what we're in right now. the war in iraq is ending. the war in afghanistan is drawing down. it's understandable that u.s. military spending would start to go down. >> well, will you -- you say it will be devastating to the economy. give us your take. >> well, i would like to make three points. first of all, defense will and can make a contribution to deficit reduction. secondly, this is not the way. the sequester is the worst way to go about reducing defense spending. thirdly, the right way to do it is to go after taxes, raise tax revenue and cut the entitlement programs, which are driving long-term spending growth and debt creation in this country. it's not defense, which is on a relatively stable downward path. so, you know, i would agree that we need to cut our deficits. it's just the wrong way to do it. >> so what is the better way to do it? here we have, you know, automatic cuts coming, automatic tax increases coming. a lot of people predicting that 2013 will be a recession as a result of this. we haven't even heard from the defense companie